Rupee may fall to 70 per Dollar
The strong dollar put pressure on most major & emerging currencies, rupee was the worst hit in Asia. The rupee has lost nearly 3 percent in the month of July alone. The next trigger for the rupee will now come from the FOMC policy minutes on July 10 and that would set the direction for most assets.
there are reports of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervening at 61.20 levels, the markets haven’t taken these interventions seriously. After a short bout of gains, the currency continued to remain weak.
We import 80 per cent of our crude requirements and so dollars will anyhow go out of the country irrespective of whatever arrangement the RBI makes. There is also no support from exporters in this volatile period. While the import payments are to be made on time, the exporters are not coming into the market as they hope for a further fall in the Indian unit.
The Current Account Deficit worries have been putting pressure on currency for months. Adding to the woes is the Food security Bill. If it is passed, it will increase the pressure on government subsidies and in turn be bearish for the unit.
Other concerning factor is the FII outflows from Asian debt and Equity markets. The resurfacing of debt concerns in Europe, unrest in Egypt, Libya, Syria etc is creating a sentiment of uncertainty in the global risk appetite as well. The Rupee at the current levels may have factored in all these negative points. The currency does look oversold and tired at 61. There is a good monsoon at hand but nobody is talking about it.
The momentum is still bearish and big voices on the street are calling rupee undervalued at current levels. They are predicting Rs 70 per dollar plus kind of levels. If the forecasts are to be believed then brace for more pain in the rupee market and Indian equities as well.